Trade in Times of Crisis

Trade in Times of Crisis

In all, the pandemic has highlighted a range of challenges and gaps in our trade regime rules. It made clear that times of crisis are not the right times for trying to manage complex issues. Instead, it makes more sense to try to agree on likely steps that can be taken and on coordination mechanisms in advance of the next disaster. Fortunately, the UN’s Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) has already put together a great set of materials to help close the gaps. There is a handbook, online course materials, and a group of resource documents. But perhaps most important for trade officials, there is also a model chapter on trade in times of crisis that deserves to be widely inserted into ongoing regional trade agreements. This short chapter, about a dozen pages, would help during the next disruption by providing a consistent framework for working together with members. It does not address all avenues of trade disruption shown through the Covid-19 pandemic, including subsidies, but it does consider carefully key weaknesses of existing processes and attempt to provide greater clarity around allowable steps to resolve and manage crisis situations. It provides useful precision about what situations might trigger the use of the chapter provisions, helps define essential goods and services, addresses realistic challenges to trade facilitation, and provides the outline of an institutional structure to be utilized in times of crisis. Although the chapter, prepared by Runqiu Du and originally drafted by Tracey Epps, Danae Wheeler and Georgia Whelan, could be easily inserted into FTAs across the region without change, it might also be modified to better suit the specific needs and interests of members.

Latin America and the CPTPP: A Short Window of Opportunity

Latin America and the CPTPP: A Short Window of Opportunity

Last week Costa Rica officially submitted its petition to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), arguably the broadest and most ambitious regional trade agreement in the Asia-Pacific. Costa Rica’s application highlights the growing interest of Latin American governments to use the CPTPP as a mechanism to strengthen their linkages with the Asia-Pacific—a strategy that would reduce their reliance on a single trading partner and diversify/grow their exports and sources of investment. The CPTPP is the first major trans-Pacific agreement where most of its members to the east of the Pacific are Latin American—Chile, Mexico and Peru. Over the past year alone, Costa Rica and Ecuador have formally applied to become members and Uruguay has stated its intentions to join the agreement. Despite renewed enthusiasm in Latin America towards the CPTPP, the region’s engagement with the agreement could be short-lived. Volatile election cycles and growing political unrest and dissatisfaction across the region are likely to shift the region’s commitment towards, and ability to negotiate and ratify, an agreement like the CPTPP.

MSME Threshold for E-Commerce Shipping

MSME Threshold for E-Commerce Shipping

The good news continues: your soap is sold in bar form. This is important, as liquids are prohibited items. Bar soap is unlikely to be found on lists of goods not allowed to be sent to certain markets (although you should be cautious if sending to Australia, which has a long list of restrictions to maintain agricultural quarantines). But then you face another serious and unexpected problem. There is a declaration form that needs to be filled out for the package. The requested information can include your sender IOSS number (for the EU) or the GST/VAT number of your recipient. The form asks for HS Codes and country of origin. You make soap. You have no idea what these questions even mean to you and you quickly have to find someone who can help. You might get incredibly lucky and find a post office staff person who can unravel these questions. Or not. In some markets, there are either written guides or help sheets built into the websites of the postal service. In some locations, there are government officials or business association staff who can provide some assistance. But in many instances, you are on your own to sort this out. If you get your information wrong, it can be a serious problem. Once the details are filled in, the package is ready for shipment. The costs shown on the invoice reflects the shipping charges and may need immediate payment. Flush with success, you prepare a second package. However, this time you are suddenly presented with a different set of bills. In addition to shipping charges, you are getting charged import duties and taxes. These import duties on soap could be as high as 25-40% and the taxes can easily be another 10%. Plus the customs forms are much more complicated.

The WTO: Less Than Half a Glass

The WTO: Less Than Half a Glass

Think about that again for a moment—the World Trade Organization, in 2022, continues to have no explicit rules related to the digital economy and no obvious path to getting something in place either. [The side discussions on electronic commerce did not yield any announcements from participating countries.] Members did agree to start talking about doing something to reform the organization. They have “reaffirmed” the foundational principles and agreed to work towards a solution to a specific challenge on dispute settlement in two more years. Given this dispiriting list of outcomes, why were trade watchers mostly glowingly optimistic? Two reasons come to mind. First, most trade watchers have spent a lifetime building up this institution in one way or another. It’s very hard to witness the slow extinguishment of a dream, passion project, and vocation. Second, because the WTO matters and watching it flounder is genuinely a problem. Given the importance of the global trade body to businesses and consumers, it can feel particularly wrong to kick the organization when it is down. After all, why continue to draw attention to limited outcomes and why not recast the latest outcomes as a historic achievement that highlights continued relevance? It is precisely because a functioning WTO matters so much that it is important to be honest about its pathway and prospects for the future. Sugarcoating a weak package of outcomes doesn’t help focus attention on why the institution has failed to make headway or why members cannot agree on doing important things. Let’s just review for a moment why a functioning WTO is so critical to all of us. It provides a common set of rules and principles that have allowed trade to flourish. It’s like oxygen for the trading system. Extinguish the air and everyone will start to suffer. Without the WTO in place, governments would be free to randomly reset their trade rules on a regular basis. Tariffs could go up or down without notice. Customs checks at the borders could suddenly focus on allowing goods from some locations to pass easily while blocking everything from other firms. It would drive up costs dramatically and the burden would fall most heavily, as always, on the smallest firms.

Repost: Impeding Collapse of a Key Digital Trade Rule

Repost:  Impeding Collapse of a Key Digital Trade Rule

But what has not been noticed is that the WTO ministerial [now set to start on June 12, 2022] is likely to spell the end to a critically important digital trade rule. It goes by the innocuous name of the “customs moratorium on electronic transmissions.” It may be that the bland and unfamiliar phrasing has not captured imaginations. Or it may be that this provision has seemed to be under threat for so long that most have forgotten about it. Covid disruptions have not helped anyone focus on much. But now odds are high that the moratorium will actually fall at MC12. Companies and consumers will have an unexpected and potentially rude awakening to this apparently minor rule that did not ever get the support it needed. The WTO has famously few provisions that directly apply to digital trade. After all, the organization was launched in 1995 at the dawn of the internet era. Subsequent efforts to negotiate new rules for the institution have mostly foundered.