China relocation

How Not to Win a Trade War

Arbitrary or capricious rule changes are a significant danger for foreign firms looking to diversify out of China into other markets in Asia.  It certainly does no good to open a new warehouse or building, only to have a regulatory change that renders it unusable or be saddled with new requirements on staffing that drive costs into the red. Most of the markets in the region that are currently expecting to capitalize on the trade war struggle with at least some—and usually all—of these problems.  An honest assessment of market conditions in hopeful “winners” could bring about some necessary changes.  There is certainly an opportunity for many markets to capture new gains from trade in areas that have not been “in play” for years.  But absent some significant improvements in the ease of doing business in a remarkably short period of time, many of the locations that expect a windfall from relocations are likely to be bitterly disappointed.