The third lesson is that the details matter. Some of the provisions that are currently being ignored by commenters on NAFTA are buried deep in the texts and schedules. These may turn out to be deeply consequential for NAFTA parties. Some may also affect outside parties. As an example, the auto rules of origin require a significant and growing share of autos, trucks, parts, components, steel and aluminum to be made within NAFTA (with more expensive labor inputs as well). For suppliers based outside of NAFTA, this is going to be extremely problematic or even catastrophic. These orders could be cancelled outright and never replaced. Alternatively, NAFTA 2.0 could force a renewed look at offshoring or sourcing entirely for export. Either way, existing supply chains are likely to be under severe stress.

The fourth lesson is that NAFTA contains some problematic provisions that might spread elsewhere.

Since NAFTA 2.0 builds on the base of the original NAFTA, the new deal had some advantages over the TPP. For example, tariffs between the parties are already set at zero. This remains, although do note that there are very complicated tariff rate quotas in place in NAFTA 2.0 that were not scrapped. Indeed, the level of genuinely new market access granted to partners that have known and worked with one another for decades is vanishingly small. While much focus, as an example, has been on Canada’s new market access for dairy, the total amount given amounts to barely 0.4%. And the United States, in return, has an equally complex system of barriers in place to protect its own dairy industry from competition (as well as sugar, oranges, and others). The deeply problematic bits of the agreement can be found buried in the texts. For instance, the rules of origin (ROO) are incredibly complicated. Given that tariffs are zero, the only way to keep out goods is to craft ROOs that are impossible to follow. Clearly, for many products, this objective has been met. The level of NAFTA content required in fairly large swaths of products is extremely high. Commentators keep focusing on the insane requirements for auto production, but note that for a wide range of goods, new NAFTA content rules require 50% or more content. To make matters worse, in many products, these rules tighten after 3 years, rising to as much as 70% local (ie NAFTA) content.

The Five Lessons of NAFTA Negotiations

Evaluating Trade Deals Like NAFTA 2.0