Thomas Kuhn

The Paradigm Shift in Trade: Business is NOT as Usual Anymore

The Paradigm Shift in Trade:  Business is NOT as Usual Anymore

The new paradigm has not been established yet.  Kuhn describes a protracted battle that takes place during times of shift as the crisis plays out over what ought to replace the discredited old model.  Trump has fired the starting gun on the battle for the future of the global trading system.  In his world, the US will draw up the gates and manage with only those favored few bilateral partners that share similar perspectives.  The European Union just presented a plan to save the current WTO.  But because they have not yet recognized the extent to which we are standing on the precipice of the shift, the plan has already been derided as weak.  It tweaks around the edges of the existing system. Canada is holding a conference of “middle powers” next month to brainstorm new ideas.  They will need to be bold.  In designing a way forward, officials need to recognize that whatever comes in the future will—of necessity—be radically different that the system that we have been comfortable with for more than seven decades.