While the UK signature on the concluded accession protocol is to be welcomed, it does not mean that firms should expect to receive benefits from CPTPP expansion just yet. First, the agreement has pass domestic UK approval procedures, which includes Parliamentary votes. The protocol will also need to be approved by existing CPTPP members, using whatever domestic procedures are in place for managing this process. In some members, domestic approvals might also require Parliamentary approval. The UK accession protocol will only enter into force (EIF) once the UK and at least 6 existing members have completed their internal processes and 60 days pass. Members appear to be targeting approval within 15 months. Of course, these procedures could be shorter or longer than anticipated. When the original CPTPP was moving towards ratification and approval, members were targeting a start date of January 1, 2019. However, timing can be difficult to get quite right. Several members wanted to be among the first 6 members to ratify the deal. The Vietnamese were working hard to hit the January 1 deadline. Several existing members moved slightly faster than anticipated and the 6th instrument of ratification was deposited in time to launch entry into force on December 30, 2018, instead of January 1. This meant that the whole agreement came into force sooner than expected, with the first round of tariff cuts taking place on December 30 and the second “year” of tariff cuts starting just three days later on January 1.[1] The Vietnamese had an unexpected delay, which meant CPTPP did not come into force for Vietnam until January 14, 2019, when it joined Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, and Singapore. Peru was not a full member until September 19, 2021, Malaysia on November 29, 2022, Chile on February 20, 2023, and Brunei finally joined just last week, on July 12, 2023.[2] [Photo courtesy Photo: RNZ / Giles Dexter]
CPTPP: Back to a Dozen Members!
The Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) agreement is gaining its first new member with the announcement this morning of substantial conclusion of accession talks for the United Kingdom. While the Ministerial statement containing the good news amounted to just four paragraphs, regular Talking Trade readers will know that getting this far in accession talks is an important milestone. The process has taken nearly two years, driven partly by Covid-19 pandemic travel disruptions which meant early talks were held online. This was not the only challenge. During the Working Party discussions, the CPTPP’s own active membership increased by three, with the ratification of Peru, Chile, and Malaysia. (Just Brunei remains an original signatory, but not yet an active member of the group.) Covid was not the only disruption during the past two years either. The UK itself went through substantial domestic upheavals. The country was also wrapped up in complex talks to help sort out its own trade strategy and engagements across the globe. As trade experts are keenly aware, there can be a lag between the announcement of “substantial conclusion” and the actual closure of a trade deal. Often this gap is described as allowing sufficient time for “legal scrubbing” to take place. However, international trade lawyers will argue that a good legal eagle should be able to review any final changes that arise from a last marathon sprint in negotiations very quickly and, certainly, good lawyers should not need weeks or months to get their jobs done.
How to Join the CPTPP
Assuming the current members have no objection, the applicant country can proceed to file a formal request to join. This letter, as the UK has demonstrated, gets sent to New Zealand, as Wellington serves as the official repository location for the CPTPP. In the absence of a Secretariat, the CPTPP is managed through a rotating appointment of Commission Chairs. Japan is currently holding the post. (Mexico held it last year and Singapore is up for 2022. Both are serving as vice chairs of the Commission for 2021 to support Japan. The rotation is dictated by the order in which members joined the agreement.) A CPTPP Secretariat would make accession talks significantly easier. It would come with a built-in group of officials well versed in CPTPP rules and regulations, familiar with the existing membership and important sensitivities, as well as the current individuals for each member that are actively involved in various chapter activities. Secretariat staff could serve as neutral parties, shepherding new members through accession. Without a Secretariat, CPTPP accession will be started by the current chair. The chair will help members decide on the composition of a “working group” to manage the process. It may be that all aspiring members are grouped together into one working group or that members opt to hold separate working groups for each potential member. The chair of the working group(s) will be decided by members and the group(s) will include representatives from all active members. Accession to the CPTPP is not like launching FTA negotiations. The process is closer to that of joining the World Trade Organization (WTO). It will likely take some time to organize, as there is no sitting working group for members. New members are not negotiating over changes to existing rules. The nearly 600 pages of text need not be adjusted in accession. Instead, work will get underway on crafting new member’s specific schedules which include:
Special Edition: The WTO “Fall Back” Option for Brexit
None of these, however, can start until the WTO issues have been sorted. Hence it is urgent to get the UK/EU internal discussions underway immediately on how to divide up WTO commitments and start the painstaking process of scheduling independent commitments for the UK. It may go smoothly and quickly. But it may not. And companies would be well advised to pay careful attention to what happens in Geneva—these apparently arcane discussions about schedules and commitments could become the rules that govern trade for UK businesses for a long time to come.