So, on trade, Trump and whatever might now be called the “Trump wing” of the party will be opposed to trade agreements (except for “really good ones” that are different from the current crop of deals). He made three big promises: to hike tariffs on China and Mexico; to “rip” up NAFTA, and to withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP, now renamed the CPTPP after US withdrawal on Trump’s first Monday in office). Note that—in an otherwise wildly inconsistent presidency—Trump has delivered nearly all of what he set out to do in trade. Trade is the one area where Trump has strongly held beliefs that have not wavered across decades. He has found officials that share his vision of a world where the US continues to dictate outcomes and allowed them to press ahead. As he faces a very tough re-election fight in 2020, Trump is likely to continue to escalate one area that matters to him—reversing the economic “war” that the US had been losing by pursuing aggressive policy actions. The President already had extraordinary leeway to maneuver on trade, as we noted in 2016. The past years have shown that the presumed “guard rails,” like Congress, have been less effective in limiting actions than many anticipated. His use of Executive Orders and options pulled out of the US policy “toolkit” of largely forgotten provisions, often dating back to height of the Cold War with the Soviet Union, has continued to rise. Trade, President Trump believes, is a big part of what got him into the White House. Hence, expect it to remain dominant in the few months leading to the election. His advisors will also be more eager than ever to lock in policy actions consistent with Trump’s views on trade.