Asian trade

The Year Ahead: 2023 for Asian Trade

The Year Ahead: 2023 for Asian Trade

It’s that time of year again—ready to gaze into a crystal ball and guess the 2023 future of trade in Asia?  The overall picture looks mixed, with continuing disruptions which may be offset by new opportunities. 

Continuing Covid impact: while much of the world (and probably all Talking Trade readers) seem eager to put the Covid-19 pandemic in the rear-view mirror, the virus is likely to continue to affect trade in Asia for much of 2023.  Disruptions will be caused by individuals that are continuing to get sick and are unable to report for work.  Fluctuating staffing levels can make it difficult for companies to deliver goods and services on time as intended.  These delays will continue to reverberate across the region and create continuing headaches for supply chain managers, particularly in the first half of the year.  As with the earlier waves of Covid, government reactions and responses to potentially rising infection levels are also important.  While complete border shutdowns may be a thing of the past, governments have shown a new willingness to make rapid adjustments to policies that can catch firms by surprise.  

Inflation and recession worries:  The jury remains out on whether inflationary pressures are going to sharply or modestly moderate in the near term, but there is a growing consensus that several major economies are still poised for recession.  Given the importance of key markets in the US and Europe to most Asian economies, even a mild recession in either can be quite damaging.  Inflation and rising interest rates are also posing new challenges to domestic firms and consumers. 

Uncertain supply and demand:  Firms in Asia are also grappling with continuing uncertainty about the supply and demand for goods and services in the near term.  Many of the economic patterns developed during covid, such as working from home or extensive shopping online, will change in 2023.  But the “new normal” is also unlikely to snap back to pre-covid times.  This leaves firms and supply chain managers facing a set of forecasts that are probably obsolete and few clear answers on what sorts of supply and demand pressures might be most relevant now.  High levels of uncertainty make it all too easy for firms to over or undershoot expectations, leading to mountains of unsold inventory, staffing levels which are not right sized, or an inability to deliver at volumes.

More than a Decade of the Pacific Alliance: Implications for Singapore and the Region

More than a Decade of the Pacific Alliance: Implications for Singapore and the Region

On Jan 26, 2022 Singapore signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the Pacific Alliance (PA), a regional economic bloc made up of Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru representing more than USD 2 trillion in GDP. The Pacific Alliance Singapore FTA (PASFTA), has been touted as a “landmark moment” for Singapore’s partnership with Latin America with the potential to strengthen investment and market access opportunities for Singapore and PA countries. Despite the agreement’s potential, there remain economic, institutional and political factors that could affect the PA’s potential impact on Singapore and the region’s trade and investment opportunities. The PA has done a remarkable job in establishing itself as a platform with the potential to increase trade an investment between Latin American and the Asia-Pacific region. However, structural obstacles to intra-alliance trade, overlapping regional economic integration efforts and risks to institutional continuity will shape the size of the PA’s impact and influence in the region.

RCEP: A First Look at the Texts

RCEP: A First Look at the Texts

The 15 countries in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) held an elegant virtual signing ceremony on November 15, 2020. The Asian Trade Centre will be delving more deeply into the specific details and producing a series of materials to help companies get ready to use the agreement. For now, here are our first quick technical assessments of the agreement. Note that this early look should not be taken as the definitive guide, as an agreement with 20 chapters and thousands of pages of associated schedules will take some time to unravel. To get a sense of the task ahead, the Korean tariff schedules alone run to 2743 pages. Compounding the difficulties of making a quick assessment: governments can be quite creative in burying important details inside of different provisions. Flexibilities and exceptions are going to be tough to note, understand and unravel. RCEP will, of course, have important implications for trade in the region, for economic integration and for the future of trade policy. This post, however, will focus on the details of the agreement itself. The basic structure includes 20 chapters, making RCEP a comprehensive trade agreement that includes commitments in areas like goods, services, investment, intellectual property rights, competition, trade remedies, standards, e-commerce and dispute settlement. Many of these chapters were not included in the underlying ASEAN+1 agreements that formed the original core of RCEP. Getting these negotiated took significant time, which is partly why RCEP has taken 8 years to reach conclusion. Overall, RCEP represents a significant achievement. The 15 countries involved (Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam) are very diverse in nearly every imaginable dimension. Getting an agreement that could successfully navigate the domestic constraints and starting points in all 15 countries is an important accomplishment. RCEP also represents the first time that many members have engaged in this sort of trade arrangements: especially between China, Japan and South Korea. As expected, this created additional friction as officials grappled with managing outcomes.

Bright Spots for Trade in Asia

Bright Spots for Trade in Asia

Two other important groupings have important milestones in August. The members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) are meeting on August 5. The CPTPP, which still has no Secretariat to manage this sprawling and complex trade agreement, is instead driven by a series of meetings across the year by government officials working on various aspects of the deal. The primary mechanism for oversight is the CPTPP Commission, which will be held virtually under Mexico’s chairmanship this year. The Commission meeting should be notable for a few reasons. First, it is an opportunity to celebrate the achievements of the agreement after more than 18 months in operation. While trade flows remain depressed under the pandemic, governments like Vietnam have taken advantage of the opportunity to expand knowledge. Vietnam held 577 seminars and workshops in 2019 alone to encourage the proper utilization of the CPTPP by firms of all sizes across the country. Second, the Commission will review any issues that have emerged in implementation. An agreement that runs to nearly 600 pages with thousands of country-specific commitments is bound to have a few issues. As a simple example, a typo in one of the letters mentioned yams instead of yarn.

RCEP: Reaching Substantial Conclusion?

RCEP: Reaching Substantial Conclusion?

Missing from all this cooperation, however, has been a mechanism to integrate the whole of Asia together in a meaningful way.  RCEP provides this template.  “Substantial conclusion” will not mean that people will be eagerly reviewing the texts and schedules on November 5.  There are two reasons for a delay in seeing the contents.  First, officials have been frantically switching, dropping and including provisions over the past few weeks in the sprint to the finish line.  Most of these elements have been under discussion for years.  RCEP officials started working on the deal at the end of 2012.  However, in the final push to get an agreement done, sensitive items actually have to get addressed and dealt with one way or another.  To ensure consistency across the document, the lawyers will need to carefully review the entire deal from start to finish.  The need for a careful legal scrub is not unique to RCEP.  Most trade agreements require something similar and ought to be welcomed by all.  The worst outcome would be to have a deal riddled with flaws that need correction later.