supply chain

The Year Ahead: 2023 for Asian Trade

The Year Ahead: 2023 for Asian Trade

It’s that time of year again—ready to gaze into a crystal ball and guess the 2023 future of trade in Asia?  The overall picture looks mixed, with continuing disruptions which may be offset by new opportunities. 

Continuing Covid impact: while much of the world (and probably all Talking Trade readers) seem eager to put the Covid-19 pandemic in the rear-view mirror, the virus is likely to continue to affect trade in Asia for much of 2023.  Disruptions will be caused by individuals that are continuing to get sick and are unable to report for work.  Fluctuating staffing levels can make it difficult for companies to deliver goods and services on time as intended.  These delays will continue to reverberate across the region and create continuing headaches for supply chain managers, particularly in the first half of the year.  As with the earlier waves of Covid, government reactions and responses to potentially rising infection levels are also important.  While complete border shutdowns may be a thing of the past, governments have shown a new willingness to make rapid adjustments to policies that can catch firms by surprise.  

Inflation and recession worries:  The jury remains out on whether inflationary pressures are going to sharply or modestly moderate in the near term, but there is a growing consensus that several major economies are still poised for recession.  Given the importance of key markets in the US and Europe to most Asian economies, even a mild recession in either can be quite damaging.  Inflation and rising interest rates are also posing new challenges to domestic firms and consumers. 

Uncertain supply and demand:  Firms in Asia are also grappling with continuing uncertainty about the supply and demand for goods and services in the near term.  Many of the economic patterns developed during covid, such as working from home or extensive shopping online, will change in 2023.  But the “new normal” is also unlikely to snap back to pre-covid times.  This leaves firms and supply chain managers facing a set of forecasts that are probably obsolete and few clear answers on what sorts of supply and demand pressures might be most relevant now.  High levels of uncertainty make it all too easy for firms to over or undershoot expectations, leading to mountains of unsold inventory, staffing levels which are not right sized, or an inability to deliver at volumes.

Trade Compliance Keeps Getting Harder

Trade Compliance Keeps Getting Harder

Pity trade compliance staff. For years, these roles received little attention. Staff ensured that laws and regulations related to the movement of goods across borders were followed. The right paperwork was sent to the correct recipient and customs duties or tariffs were paid accordingly. In an efficient office, with fairly limited changes in border procedures and relevant legal regimes, it was the sort of important operation that largely escaped notice. It was really only if the staff made a serious mistake that trade compliance moved up on the corporate agenda. Failure to follow rules, such as declaring the wrong code or valuations for products, could result in significant fines and penalties. But, generally, most trade moved without incident. As a result, companies probably undervalued the operations and provided only limited resources for staff. Increasingly, however, trade compliance has become a focus of attention within firms. At least four changes have added to the workload: growing trade tensions, supply chain snarls stemming from Covid-19 restrictions, a massive and growing list of sanctions and other types of controls, and the increasing use of economic levers to tackle broader foreign policy issues.

The Launch of RCEP

The Launch of RCEP

Apart from tariff benefits, RCEP members (and even non-members) can benefit from more streamlined customs procedures to facilitate trade. Building on existing ASEAN+1 agreements, RCEP introduces additional guidelines on the issue of advance rulings and on the release of goods at customs that improves certainty and reduces likelihood of shipment delays at the customs. The Chapter on Customs Procedures and Trade Facilitation also includes a scheme for authorised operators to benefit from reduced paperwork requirements, faster clearance of goods, and deferred payments or clearance at the premises of the authorized provider. While the assessment of benefits of FTAs are often fixated on tariff reductions for goods, it is equally important to recognize services and investment opportunities that RCEP offers to services providers and investors in Asia. RCEP provides further liberalization to services sectors such as legal services, accounting, architecture, computer services, wholesale trade and insurance, that can go well beyond existing ASEAN+1 agreements. This includes better market access, reduced limitations, and terms and conditions for the provision of services or the establishment of commercial presence in RCEP markets. For most service sectors, RCEP allows foreign service providers to deliver services across the border without requiring a local presence in the domestic market.

Where Does Trade Fit on Corporate Organization Charts?

In a previous post I highlighted how a European company could take advantage of the benefits of trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).   As long as products are substantially transformed in TPP member markets for shipment to TPP markets, a company can most likely use this trade agreement.  The ownership structure or location of the headquarters for a firm is not relevant. 

I explained this to a company staff member in my office.  The person nodded and said, “Very interesting.  But I don’t know who I should even tell about this.  I don’t think we have anyone inside our company that pays attention to trade.”

This is a very disheartening statement.  I mentioned it later when meeting with an industry association.  They promptly leapt up and said, “We agree.  Let us show you the organizational chart of our typical member companies in this region.” 

On the conference room white board, the association drew a chart that highlighted the following types of corporate functions underneath the regional CEO:  manufacturing, procurement, human resources, supply chain/logistics, public relations/corporate communications, government relations/regulatory affairs, marketing/sales, legal, and finance. 

I’m sure this is not the whole chart, but the primary point was that trade does not figure in the typical organizational structure.  It is not really government relations or regulatory affairs.  (An earlier post highlighted that many firms in the region also do not have either position—to the detriments of both firms and governments.) 

The supply chain/logistics or procurement departments might be sensible places for paying attention to trade agreements and tracking the benefits offered by one agreement over another.  But this does not seem to quite happen in these positions either.  Nor are many of the line staff in these departments often in a position to advocate changes for the firm as a whole to take better advantage of trade agreements. 

Trade could, of course, be handled by someone back at headquarters.  It might be possible to keep up with events from some other location in the world.  However, I sit in Asia and focus on trade full-time.  I often struggle to keep up to date on what is happening.  It’s so complicated that we cannot even agree on how many trade agreements exist that include members from Asia—150?  200? How many more are under negotiation?

I cannot imagine that someone not even in the region would be able to do the job particularly well.  Or that someone charged with managing trade across a global company could pay sufficient attention to the fluid nature of trade in Asia as well as other regions.

So, at the end of the day, who in any given company is supposed to pay attention to trade?  The answer seems to be no one in particular even at the very largest and most globally competitive firms.

This may not have been a problem as recently as 10 years ago.  At that time, alternate trade agreements were limited in number and in scope.  Nearly all trade arrangements were global—tariff levels, for example, were set through multilateral trade negotiations and applied to every member of the GATT/WTO.  If countries opted to unilaterally adjust tariff rates or to alter applied rates, these changes also applied to every GATT/WTO member. 

Hence it was not strictly necessary to have anyone paying attention to trade policy.  Whatever policies were announced by governments would apply to your own firm and all potential competitors.  Firms could still try to influence future policies, particularly at the domestic and regulatory levels, but ignoring trade negotiations and agreements would not have had significant negative consequences.

However, as trade agreements have proliferated and then became deeper and more complicated, leaving people with trade expertise off the organizational charts of major companies is an increasingly poor idea.  The potential economic gains for a firm from using trade agreements well should more than offset the addition of extra headcount.

Savvy firms are reaching out to consultant companies to help them structure supply chains to take advantage of specific trade arrangements.  With all due respect to consulting colleagues, most are likely to charge a lot of money and may deliver modest benefits to the firm.  This is not because these individuals are not smart, capable people with useful backgrounds, but mostly because they will not have a deep grasp of the firm or the industry sector.  Or, the consultants may not have sufficient knowledge of different trade agreements.  Technology might be a useful asset, but it also does not negate the need for someone with expertise on staff.

To get the most out of proliferating trade agreements that offer different sets of benefits to firms, companies have to think carefully about all elements of their supply chains and about current and future destinations for goods and services.  Factories should be placed, for example, not just in specific locations because they can service the local market but because this location provides additional useful benefits. 

For the company that started this chain of thought, it already has factories in Malaysia and Vietnam.  Both of these facilities should be planning ahead for potential benefits that could come from exporting out of these locations and into other TPP members once the TPP comes into force.  For the factories currently located in Thailand and Indonesia, if the firm chose to push, much of the production in these facilities might be shipped to customers across 16 countries in Asia after the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is concluded.

But—and this is a key point—in the absence of anyone paying attention to trade at the firm, the company is not actively engaged with officials negotiating RCEP.  Hence the final agreement may not be as useful for the firm as it might have been.  After all, the government officials negotiating in RCEP may not even recognize the importance of opening this sector or know about the specific barriers the company faces.

Although the firm is a large multinational, the factories in all four ASEAN countries source nearly all of their supplies from local producers.  Most of these producers are small enterprises or family businesses.  Many of the retailers of the company’s final products in the region are also small enterprises.  Hence, a trade agreement that smoothes barriers to entry and exit for the firm’s products should bring about substantial benefits to the small firms that depend on the multinational company as a buyer or supplier. 

These smaller firms and family businesses will not be explaining benefits of better trade facilitation or connectivity to governments.  It falls largely to big companies to make their case.  But without anyone in even the larger firms to pay attention to current and future trade issues, many potential benefits will likely be lost.

***Talking Trade is a blog post written by Deborah Elms, Executive Director, Asian Trade Centre, Singapore***