COVID-19

How to Block Trade

How to Block Trade

As Covid plus a deteriorating global trade regime makes previously unthinkable actions possible, expect more actions to block trade. Some will try for creativity, but others will simply act and dare others to challenge their bad behavior. It is easier to take such actions, of course, at a time when the global trade dispute system is broken. Governments can continue to file claims against one another at the WTO. Absent a fully functioning system though, the “losing” party can simply sit on the verdict (“send it out into the void”) and make no change to any policy. Some bad behavior could, in theory, be constrained by a variety of regional or bilateral trade deals that often come with their own dispute settlement mechanisms. Most of these dispute systems have never been used, though, as governments have tended to trust the WTO system to resolve disputes whenever possible. It’s unclear how well these other mechanisms in the majority of trade agreements might fare in tackling tough disputes. A determined government is never likely to be constrained by the mere presence of a dispute settlement system. The system works only when members are willing to abide by the rules. The global trade problem is not just that the “court” system is not working, but that some of the members in the system don’t even seem interested in participating.

Pivoting the Business: Small Business Survival in Travel and Tourism

Pivoting the Business: Small Business Survival in Travel and Tourism

It might be assumed that MSMEs that deliver services to travelers will be unable to manage at all. As an example, if no one is coming to the visit the city, site or beach, what good are tour operators or local guides? However, smaller firms should not despair. For many companies, it is possible to pivot and offer travel and tourism services online. AirBnB, for instance, has been developing an innovative lineup of “experiences” from their local hosts that are in hot demand. Many of these offerings even come with substantial price tags for customers, allowing firms to generate revenue in a purely virtual world. It may even be the case that some firms offering extremely popular experiences make more money in the downturn than before, as a global audience can provide more customers than those requiring a physical presence. What do these travel experiences look like? Could be learning the secrets of Japanese whiskey, frying spring rolls with a street vendor in Bangkok, creating a storybook for the whole family with an author in Mexico, or taking a scuba “tour” with a local guide in the Maldives. Customers might sign up for virtual walking “tours” of far-flung locations like temples or forests in Bhutan or opt to make sangria with drag queens in Spain. Innovative offerings from creative MSMEs could dramatically expand the concept of travel, leaving customers even more eager to experience something similar in person once flights and travel resume. Destinations that weren’t anywhere on a personal “bucket list” could shoot up during a time of lockdown and travel disruptions.

The New House: End of Open-Plan Living?

The New House: End of Open-Plan Living?

After watching a lot of HGTV lately, it seems that nearly every buyer or anyone looking to remodel a home on nearly every show starts with a similar request: “I want something open concept with a big kitchen for entertaining.” Every remodel starts with smashing down walls to create lines of eyesight from every part of the house to every other part. Buyers want kids to have nowhere to hide. After weeks of lockdown, however, “open concept” living is surely going to undergo an adjustment. The same four walls look more repetitive than ever if they are always the same four walls with no way to escape to another room. Having everyone always in sight sounds considerably less appealing when everyone in the house is in sight and earshot 24/7. Consumers will likely be asking for a lot more walls and more doors in a post-COVID period. Another new “must have” item: a dedicated home office with a door. This space will no longer be shared with the kids playroom or the guest bedroom. It will now need to have an adequately sized desk, a comfortable chair for extended periods of work, decent lighting and sufficient power plugs to run a much wider range of equipment. Office storage will probably surge as well, as people need to have more files at home, particularly for employees working from home for indefinite periods. Desks will also make a return to children’s bedrooms.

US-China Trade War: Still Grinding On

US-China Trade War: Still Grinding On

But the US-China trade war continues to grind on. While coronavirus takes the headlines, the economic damage from more than two years of trade hostilities between the two largest global economies continues to take a toll. Worse, US President Donald Trump appears eager to escalate the fight all over again for the rest of this year. Many people seemed to have stopped paying attention the trade conflict back when the Phase 1 “deal” was signed in January and implemented on February 14 (both dates seem like a lifetime ago already!). As we noted at the time, the Phase 1 deal was never likely to hold. The agreement had promises in a variety of areas from intellectual property rights to financial services. But the most important element was a promise to purchase goods. The US insisted that China buy $200 billion in products ranging from soybeans to energy in a two-year time frame. This target was never realistic. It was nearly double any previous purchases made by China for US exports and it was coming off extremely low export figures across the duration of US-China tariff escalation. The Phase 1 deal arrived just as the COVID-19 situation was taking off in China. With factories and shops shuttered across the country (and not just in Wuhan at the epicenter), Chinese imports from everywhere sagged. Meeting the series of purchasing targets went from impossible to never-going-to-happen. So what was the appropriate US response? There were two options available to Washington. First, to acknowledge that the scale and depth of the crisis made previous commitments unattainable in the short term and either recalibrate the expectations, adjust the target levels, or shift the timeline. Second, to complain loudly that China had failed to meet the purchasing targets and start the whole conflict all over again.

Shifting Supply Chains in Disruption

Shifting Supply Chains in Disruption

The extreme level of disruption appears to have caused firms to finally think seriously about their existing supply chain footprints. Companies in multiple sectors have now vowed to develop more resilient chains. In many cases, firms have supply chains that have evolved organically, with little coherent planning. Staff, to pick one example, often run disparate parts of global firms from locations that may not make sense if viewed from the perspective of today. Companies might have an office in one location that was originally set up because a key staff member liked the area, only to watch it evolve into a much larger operation than ever anticipated at the outset. Companies typically do not design supply chains from scratch, but bolt on different parts over time, as the firm grows or acquires new companies or moves into new sectors. The net result is often supply chain footprints that actually make little rational sense. Warehouses might be located in places that no longer have the transport links originally intended. Traffic, as an example, could be so heavy that goods are stuck in transit much longer than planned. With so many staff locked down in houses or slowly venturing back to offices, it makes sense to seize the opportunity to re-examine supply chains and determine whether and how the existing footprint can be adjusted to cope with new stresses.