The impact of COVID-19 continues to threaten the global economy, with the effects keenly felt in communities, businesses and homes. The challenges are disproportionately borne by smaller firms, as our survey of AMTC firms in Asia this week clearly indicates. Close to 50% of businesses have only a month or less than a month of cash reserves. Nearly 30% expect to have to lay-off more than 50% of workers. These figures are unlikely to be different from the experiences of smaller firms around the world. With both supply and demand crashing at the same time, companies are in a struggle for survival. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has just released an updated global trade forecast and the numbers are equally grim. Trade is expected to fall by 13-32% this year. This is the steepest contraction since 2008, with the strong possibility that COVID-19 results in worse outcomes than the Great Recession. But perhaps the most serious damage of collapsing trade flows to smaller firms can be found in the disruption to services. Many small companies are engaged in services. Some, of course, are obviously affected, such as restaurants, travel and tour companies. Others may be less clearly connected to global trade flows. For every box that is now stuck somewhere or not being filled in the first place, services can be 30-50% of the total value of the goods inside. These services can range from logistics and delivery; cleaning and maintenance of equipment; legal and HR services; graphic design and marketing; and the like. Many of the services of even giant multinationals are supplied by smaller firms. Services are affected not only by slumping demand for goods and their embedded services, but also by direct challenges like the inability of people to meet or travel.

As the number of cases of the coronavirus continue to multiply, with increasing cases in a wider range of countries, it is becoming important for companies to start thinking about the potential impact on bottom lines. While a natural reaction might be to curl up on the couch, this is not the time to just cover up and hope for the best. No one can say with confidence what sort of economic growth might be at risk from the virus. But it is becoming obvious that the economic and trade implications can be substantial in the near term. The extent to which the virus causes widespread economic losses depends on at least three things: 1) the duration and strength of the virus; 2) decisions by governments to the virus spread; and 3) the reaction of citizens and firms.

Supporting the Small in a Pandemic

The Virus, Trade and You